Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Hillary, Dick Morris and the West Wing

Last year's West Wing had a situation where the nominee for the Democrats had not been decided as of the convention. There were multiple ballots and back room deals to heighten the tension. I thought of that today while reading Dick Morris' column in The Hill.

Morris thinks Hillary's centrist view on the War in Iraq might cost her. He thinks Gore is in the cat bird's seat come 2008...Gore is anti-War and pro Kyoto.

Morris might be right that Gore could attract the left's base, but I'm not sure Hillary can lose if she wants the nomination. I'm assuming that Hillary leaves her '06 Senate race with well over $10MM in the bank. Once fundraising season picks up, Hillary is going to be a cash machine. Nobody raise money better than Bill Clinton. Bill's future shadowy role in a Hillary administration could result in a fundraising bonanza. Just enough that will be unknown that any promise he makes can have a legitimate out and just serious enough that having Bill's ear could mean that your money was well spent.

Anyway...back to the West Wing. If the primary process drags on, I think Hillary is the only one who'll have the cash to compete in every primary. That's why I don't think the West Wing's "no winner scenario all the way to the convention" was ever feasible. There's no way...I mean no way...that two candidates can raise enough money to stay in the entire race.

If Hillary decides to run, and I hope she does, she's not going to quit. I see the race shaping up as this...Gore and Feingold devide the Daily Kos crowd. The small donors will go crazy and max out their credit cards, but in the end, they'll run short of what Hillary is able to raise. Throw in Wes Clark, Mark Warner, and the rest of the ususal suspects who'll run, and I think Hillary is the only one with the checkbook to stay in the entire race.


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